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value bet
13 May 18 17:04
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Date Joined: 12 Feb 03
| Topic/replies: 6,893 | Blogger: value bet's blog
How To Take The Punt Out of Punting.

What cool wording and is not on google, but is now!

The more I researched on my lay place bets, the more it looks pretty fool proof subject to human error.

Starting with a $500 bank, but as a 2 bob punting pensioner, I will play it small and keep you updated.

In reality, I could back 100 – 150 straight winners a week and if I drop one and I will bear down harder and quicker to get it back.

Welcome to put your lay place bets here.

If they showed horses in the parade yard in UK I would post my place lays jup, but they don’t.

If I bet from behind the barriers in UK, I would lose 20% of my strike rate, and that is bad.

I have a 4.16% losing strike rate going against me after 601 races, but that will decrease now.


Will have to watch heaps of Betfair videos to find out how to do this.

I would imagine the market to be settled down with 3-4 minutes to jump when I bet.

Let’s Get Ready To Pumble!

James
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Report value bet May 14, 2018 7:46 AM BST
How To Take The Punt Out Of Punting

Day 1.

I was watching a lot and then fell asleep, but had 2 bets on unfit horses.

Bet 1.   9/9 liability 15/1   100% Profit

Bet 2.  10/10 liability  8/1   100% Profit.

Beaten a horse home so far: Zero.

I also could not resist a place bet (99% fit)of $1.76 (Won) tote was offering $1.30, so huge overs.

So had nice profit of 276%

I need to find out how to place my own odds as I could of offered 9/1 the place reducing my liability from 15/1.

It would not be hard to offer 3-4 points overs to punters.

The other lay I could of got set on 7/1 early reducing that liability.

James
Report value bet May 14, 2018 10:00 AM BST
Contacted Bet Angel for some help.

He has great videos and been watching them and discussing trading and how you place a price on
a soccer, cricket, horse race etc on what you think the out come will be.

With a win lay strike rate of 99.67%, if a horse is 4/1 the lay place price and 12/1 the win,
with a unfit rating the horse is in fact as racing against say 12 fitter horses it is
a 90/1 chance of winning.

I could confidently put up a 15/1 place offer and I will win.

I will do this one day, but then their will be an uproar of a scandel because some bet on betfair
a place more than the win price.

They would interview the owners, trainer, jockeys and more to get to the bottom of all this skullduggery.

But as the videos say in trading, place your own price on the out come and in this race; punters can
have a much money a place at the same price as the win.

I will do this one day.

James
Report value bet May 15, 2018 2:18 AM BST
Laying unfit horses.  96.05% strike rate.  608/584

I think there is some good money here to be made on place laying with lower liabilities.

But, you will have to do your homework also just to make sure.

Get that right and your strike rate should go up to about 99% a place lay and that IS UNHEARD OF!


Back LIVE ON THURSDAY.


James
Report wonby10 May 15, 2018 5:16 AM BST
Do you have any info on laying unfit birds? Any help appreciated and thanks in advance.
Report value bet May 15, 2018 6:12 AM BST
If I can work out how to place up the price on liabilities I can instead of

offer 10/1 liabilities to punters I can place up only $1.01 because they cannot win, they are so unfit.


So then I can go back to win lays offering prices and take the 99.67% strike rate.

What set lay punters do after that is their business, they could easily trade without losing EVERY RACE.


All I know is I am set on a horse that has a only a 0.03% chance of winning.

I can make 3,000% profit every day.

Is that right?

James
Report value bet May 15, 2018 6:33 AM BST
I think I am thinking wrong.
Report value bet May 17, 2018 2:02 AM BST
How to take the punt out of Punting.

Getting out and about.


Just for a change I may go live on-course on some days FOR EARLY FITNESS % MAIL from the stables; a better service.

Tips will come through hour/s before the race as I rate horses coming off the truck and you can mark down on your form guides.


Tips will come through our platform on my iCloud from oncourse with fitness tips posted during the day.

I can go to the stables and do Waller, Weir and Waterhouse horses fitness levels hours before they race, a massive new edge.

•    Fitter Horses to back and include
•    Unfit Horses to lay
•    Horses to include in your exotic and early quaddies.


It will be local to me and nice weather.

This will be included as part of your membership.

I will still be able to do some races off on-course monitors for our Sydney races, but not all races.

A new big edge for members.

FREE Live today about noon.

More later

James
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