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woodmanchester
17 Mar 18 18:44
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Date Joined: 25 Aug 11
| Topic/replies: 25,222 | Blogger: woodmanchester's blog
Now the dust has settled on the festival, my main two for the National are 25/1 Blaklion and 70.0 exch The Last Samuri

Hopefully, Blaklion will have recovered from Haydock when he came to a standstill after the last and with better going, may yet get home

Had Samuri in mind for a long time and ran with credit in the Cross Country at Cheltenham. Backed off the boards there, augurs well for Liverpool with no smoke without fire
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Report Bindaree March 17, 2018 11:08 PM GMT
I think it's very difficult for horses who have a near miss to then come back carrying more weight and win. After all if they couldn't win when they were relatively well in it doesn't seem likely they will when the handicapper reassesses them. Blaklion doesn't appear to get 4 1/2 miles anyway.
Report irishone March 18, 2018 4:34 AM GMT
the fellah has no clue bindaree
empty vessel most sound
Report kavvie March 18, 2018 8:58 AM GMT
blacklion doesnt appear to get 4.5 miles but with a more patient conervative ride he might i feel.depends what haydock too out of him.it didnt look good .
Report Bindaree March 18, 2018 9:17 AM GMT
I don't base my assessment of Blaklions staying on last seasons National. People seem to think that Fehily raced him into the lead but in reality all he did was let him stride on and he ran out of stamina. In the 2016 Hennessy he faded from the last and at Haydock last time he came to a walk. You can't blame the going as he has won more than once on heavy. Bear in mind he was 9ibs better in than he is this year as well. I just think the evidence suggests he doesn't stay 4 1/2 miles but maybe time will alter that however unlikely.
Report SOULDANCER March 18, 2018 9:39 AM GMT
Bindaree is correct, Blaklion is badly handicapped and doesn't stay the trip.
Report dunlaying March 18, 2018 11:21 AM GMT
Poorly handicapped , doesn't stay and could end up with top weight . He is a smashing little chap but he is on my lay list .
Report the bloob March 18, 2018 5:49 PM GMT
it's true Blaklion would benefit from a more patient ride but I just can't get over the weight increase, the horse is badly handicapped, lovely jumper of the fences though

Tiger Roll is an interesting one now, not your typical profile with flat breeding and a Triumph Hurdle in the bag. The NH Chase at Cheltenham and the Cross Country have been really good pointers to the GN in recent years (Cause of Causes and Balthazar King are good examples), and Tiger Roll now ticks both those boxes

one that interests me at a big price, and may not be a runner, is Rathvinden. Not your typical novice (albeit a 2nd season novice) and at 10 is the right age, after the win this week he is also now one of those "well in at the weights" horses

Vintage Clouds is also interesting, and will be carrying 10st 0lb if he gets in and Definitely Red runs. He does have place form in the Welsh National which is important, his run in that race and this week at Cheltenham were very similar, looked beaten a long way out and then stayed on noticeably at the end to get placed. I think carrying such a light weight will be a big help
Report GoldCupWinner March 18, 2018 9:43 PM GMT
Vintage clouds would need heavy going to win, otherwise tends to get outpaced.

Couldn't confidently rule out Tiger roll and would have to be on my shortlist.
Report Bindaree March 18, 2018 11:20 PM GMT
Vintage has shown it acts on Gd/s which the GN is invariably run on nowadays and wasn't disgraced in the Scottish National which was on good. It has to improve on that but as he is a relatively young horse that is not out of the question and the fact it races prominently also has to be in its favour. It always seems strong at the end of races.
Report irishone March 19, 2018 9:03 AM GMT
one bet so far for me
over 100\1
a genie in abottle
Report Bindaree March 19, 2018 9:22 AM GMT
7 yr old !!
Report GoldCupWinner March 19, 2018 11:00 AM GMT
I know vintage has a on good to soft but in this sort of company he has been outpaced several times. Even in the Welsh national he was outpaced and that was on heavy. If the ground does turn out to be testing I will back him, otherwise I don't think he has the speed to compete.
Report impossible123 March 19, 2018 12:38 PM GMT
Definitely Red is out - he is running in the Aintree Bowl.
Report brendrew March 19, 2018 12:46 PM GMT
vieux lion rouge+blaklion  for me
Report Bindaree March 19, 2018 3:05 PM GMT
I've always thought the National is about stamina and jumping ability and quite where speed comes into it I'm not sure. I can't remember having ever seen a horse show a great burst of speed at the end, more a case of just keep going as others start to cry enough.
Report GoldCupWinner March 19, 2018 3:15 PM GMT
I thought it was quite common for winners to have decent form over shorter distances earlier in their career. National not a race you want to get too far behind in.
Report sewter lives again March 19, 2018 4:26 PM GMT
Arthur managed it last year
Report Bindaree March 19, 2018 7:48 PM GMT
I think the problem with Vintage is not that he gets outpaced it's more that he's not always quick or as slick over the fences and also has a habit of hitting the occasional fence. This tends to cost it a few lengths especially when it's near the end of a race and it's always playing catch up.
Report Facts March 21, 2018 5:19 PM GMT
Tiger Roll for me. Taken the 16/1. Will be shorter.
Report Bindaree March 21, 2018 7:26 PM GMT
You may be correct but I would be surprised based on it's form. The 2nd horse in the cross country is moderate and wouldn't get in the GN. It's form in big field handicaps is mainly poor including last years Irish National when it pulled up.
Report sixtwosix March 21, 2018 7:46 PM GMT
Do we think there is any chance of Ms Frost winning on Milansbar?
Big  horse who will be in the first few and won the same race as One For Arthur
Report Bindaree March 21, 2018 8:10 PM GMT
I would think it very unlikely.Would need it extremely heavy and she wouldn't be able to claim. Overall it doesn't seem to have the necessary class to win a modern national having been at best a 140-145 rated horse. What wins though does anyone know or have a little gem they have sorted out ? Personally I think anyone who bets any of the remaining runners at less than 16-1 is short changing themselves.
Report Meat Loaf March 21, 2018 8:15 PM GMT
Its amazing that the top 8 in the betting market Blaklion, Total Recall, Minella Rocco, Tiger Roll, Cause of Causes, Last Samurai, Anibale Fly and Gold Present will all have heavy weights to carry round.

I would discount all 8 of these to win the race. Its extremely likely the winner will carry less than 11st.
Report the bloob March 21, 2018 8:20 PM GMT
Cause of Causes won the Cross Country far more impressively than Tiger Roll, before going on to be runner up in the National. I would guess that the Cross Country was more of a fitness exercise for Tiger Roll, in prep for the GN. I've backed Tiger Roll myself and it's more off the back of the win in the 4 miler at Cheltenham last year, a race which often produces GN candidates in future years
Report Bindaree March 21, 2018 8:39 PM GMT
Even the 4 mile Cheltenham form from last year wouldn't be good enough. Missed Approach, who has been withdrawn from the national, would have been 12 lbs better off for 3 lengths
Report SOULDANCER March 21, 2018 9:49 PM GMT
WARRIORS TALE seems a nice price.
Report the bloob March 23, 2018 8:11 PM GMT
Cause of Causes just hit 50 on here, something amiss? I know they reported him a bit stiff after Cheltenham
Report sixtwosix March 23, 2018 9:59 PM GMT
Blaklion had a wind op according to the Post , cross than one off along with C of C ....field is slowing falling apart , soon have it down to 4 probables(last 3 years winners have been in my selections thankfully).
Report Bindaree March 23, 2018 10:50 PM GMT
C of C unlikely to run apparently. Not surprising really and wouldn't be a shock if Tiger Roll doesn't make it, Cheltenham was attritional.
Report keeping silent March 24, 2018 7:46 AM GMT
Will be good to finally see a reappearance from Seeyouatmidnight today .
Report Meat Loaf March 24, 2018 8:33 AM GMT
Bellshill and Pleasant Company running in Irish National
Report Meat Loaf March 24, 2018 8:34 AM GMT
Acapella Bourgeois non runner
Report Meat Loaf March 24, 2018 8:35 AM GMT
Rathvinden non runner?
Report Meat Loaf March 24, 2018 8:49 AM GMT
Looks like the Irish trainers are targeting their own national over the English national
Report GoldCupWinner March 24, 2018 10:51 AM GMT
Starting to come around to Rathvinden, despite being a novice and having a hard race last time. He is older than a novice usually would be and does have 11 chases already under his belt. He proved last time out that he stays and he has some classy hurdle/chase form at shorter distances. He'll be carrying less than 11 stone and acts on any ground. Can make mistakes but the fences are not as bad as they used to be.
Report Callisto-moon March 24, 2018 1:56 PM GMT
meat loaf isnt tiger roll under 11 in weights?
Report Meat Loaf March 24, 2018 2:40 PM GMT
Yes apologies Tiger Roll is under 11st
Report the bloob March 24, 2018 4:54 PM GMT
I too like Rathvinden, but got to be a doubt they run him. Vintage Clouds looks like getting in so I've had a bet at 50/1
Report Meat Loaf March 24, 2018 5:23 PM GMT
Vintage Clouds is such a strange horse. Can never work out if he is well handicapped or badly handicapped.
Report the bloob March 24, 2018 5:58 PM GMT
given that he will be scraping in at the bottom I would say well handicapped. Always staying on well late on, less weight will surely help
Report Meat Loaf March 24, 2018 8:10 PM GMT
Looks like Vintage Clouds will definitely get a run now. There appears to be lots of non runners still entered. Could Minella Daddy scrape in. One I like at 999/1!
Report GoldCupWinner March 24, 2018 10:22 PM GMT
I do like Anibale fly if rathvinden doesn't run. There have been 3 winners since 2010 carrying 11st 5lb+ so I don't think it is to be avoided as much as it once was. Early on in the season it looked laid out for the big handicap it won. It then fell in its first attempt at a grade one when it didn't really attempt to jump the fence at all. He more than atoned for that in the gold cup, finishing very strongly when most had cried enough. Many clouds managed to win the national after contesting the gold cup and anibale fly fared a lot better than he did. There seems to be a longer gap between the two festivals this year too. I will wait for nrnb terms but rathvinden and anibale fly are my two against the field. Not sure what to make of seeyouatmidnight return today, posed more questions than answers and after watching the Scottish national again he looked to be tiring badly towards the end.
Report sixtwosix March 25, 2018 11:49 AM BST
Big issue I have with Anibale Fly is the crashing fall he took before the Gold Cup , not sure he will get round.
Report GoldCupWinner March 25, 2018 10:18 PM BST
Aye it was a bad fall and he got it all wrong I agree, although I'm prepared to forgive him the one bad mistake given I think he has a lot of positives. Another positive I forgot to mention was his record in races with a large number of runners.

I know vintage clouds is popular on the forum but for me national winners travel well to keep themselves in good positions. I know one for Arthur was held up but he was always travelling well, vintage clouds never seems to travel too well.
Report irishone March 25, 2018 10:24 PM BST
dont think anabel fly will figure , great bet in the gc but tony needs a while to line one up
Report casemoney March 26, 2018 1:20 AM BST
VC problem is Jumping, never the less if he put in a decent round might not be far away .
Report unclepuncle March 26, 2018 10:55 AM BST
Ucello Conti @ 33/1 for me. 3/4 win 1/4 place.

Was going well last year when the jockey took the suicidal line at Bechers 2nd time and he unseated.
Had finished close up in the Becher last sesosn virtually dead heating with One For Arthur.

His run against Anibale Fly at Christmas looks better now as well.
Report irishone March 27, 2018 9:57 AM BST
theres a few down the bottom that are die hard grade 1 irish chasers that have been allocated unbelievable weights , mouse , noel meade and gordon elliot are rubbing their hands in expectation if the ground comes up soft
Report driver2 April 10, 2018 8:34 AM BST
i'm on Ucello Conte at 33's as well, I backed him last year, partly because of his ability to jump round. He was going particularly well approaching Bechers for the 2nd time, but was unfortunately unsighted by Saint Are jumping across him and he unseated Daryll Jacobs. Gordon Elliot told us a couple of weeks ago that he'd laid him out for the GN and he's owned by a couple of shrewd operators. He's been backed down to 25's (20's in some places) and is down a couplr of lbs from last year on 10st9lbs. Daryll Jacobs again takes the ride.
Report unclepuncle April 13, 2018 12:40 PM BST
Have added Pleasant Company @ 50 and a saver on Total Recall @ 14 who looks best of the market leaders imo

Good luck all (except I123Laugh)
Report woodmanchester April 14, 2018 10:17 AM BST
Bet118 paying 8 places
Report Desmond Orchard April 14, 2018 10:25 AM BST
In bet size order;-
Seeyouatmidnight
Raz de maree
Houblon des obeaux
Milansbar
Obviously done the forecasts and tricasts
Good luck all
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