on his own holywell aachen goonyella unioniste rule the world the romford pele
i have backed holywell, unioniste and the romford pele
Lets start with some abolutes: Won a chase over at least 3 miles - 100% (and indeed, every winner since at least 1988) Aged between 8 and 12 - 100% (and every winner since 1978: only 3 8yos, 4 12yos since 1978) Ran 4-6 times in season - 100% (only Miinehoma since 1988 ran less than 4 times) Carried 11-1 or less - 100% (only 2 carried 11-0 + in last 20 runnings)
Appying these trends to the top 70 currently entered, 51 runners are eliminated.
Had a run within last 50 days - 100% (18 ex last 20 ran within 36 days) Had not finished out of the frame or pulled up in a previous GN - 100% (Amberleigh House was 3rd, and also brought down, 2 others fell previousl) Managed at least a place in one of previous 3 runs - 100% (allows us to eliminate some woefully out of form old-timers) Had won a maximum of one race that season - 90% (Exception was Lord Gyllene 10 years ago)
Applying these trends to the remaining 19 horses, we are left with a shortlist of just 6: Royal Auclair Dun Doire Slim Pickings Silver Birch Mckelvey Sonevafushi
Of these, Royal Auclair has too much weight for my liking really and Sonevafushi has never actually won a decent race, which all previous winners had. That leaves 4 - you can do the rest yourselves!'
Charlton this race has changed from 10 years ago only Royal Auclair out of them would even get in this years Grand National and he would be on around 10st 6. Top of the handicap has always had less runners. In the last 10 years horses with 11 stone and over have had 5 winners
Charlton this race has changed from 10 years ago only Royal Auclair out of them would even get in this years Grand National and he would be on around 10st 6.Top of the handicap has always had less runners.In the last 10 years horses with 11 stone an