Grand National

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07 Apr 16 20:05
Date Joined: 25 Aug 05
| Topic/replies: 6,621 | Blogger: Charlton2005's blog
Tipped up a 10000/1 trifecta for £24

this years qualifiers

on his own
rule the world
the romford pele

i have backed holywell, unioniste and the romford pele

gl all

Lets start with some abolutes:
Won a chase over at least 3 miles - 100% (and indeed, every winner since at least 1988)
Aged between 8 and 12 - 100% (and every winner since 1978: only 3 8yos, 4 12yos since 1978)
Ran 4-6 times in season - 100% (only Miinehoma since 1988 ran less than 4 times)
Carried 11-1 or less - 100% (only 2 carried 11-0 + in last 20 runnings)

Appying these trends to the top 70 currently entered, 51 runners are eliminated.

Had a run within last 50 days - 100% (18 ex last 20 ran within 36 days)
Had not finished out of the frame or pulled up in a previous GN - 100% (Amberleigh House was 3rd, and also brought down, 2 others fell previousl)
Managed at least a place in one of previous 3 runs - 100% (allows us to eliminate some woefully out of form old-timers)
Had won a maximum of one race that season - 90% (Exception was Lord Gyllene 10 years ago)

Applying these trends to the remaining 19 horses, we are left with a shortlist of just 6:
Royal Auclair
Dun Doire
Slim Pickings
Silver Birch

Of these, Royal Auclair has too much weight for my liking really and Sonevafushi has never actually won a decent race, which all previous winners had. That leaves 4 - you can do the rest yourselves!'
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Report jasey April 7, 2016 9:20 PM BST
Ignoring top of the handicap ain't a very good idea imo
Report Charlton2005 April 7, 2016 10:16 PM BST
4+ miles on heavy ground? I would rather bet that 4 of thr top 5 dont finish that bet one of them will win

gl with what ever you choose
Report Steamship April 8, 2016 12:15 AM BST
Shouldn't Boston Bob be in the initial list?
Report Charlton2005 April 8, 2016 8:33 AM BST
took him out under the "not having run in 50 days", so not 100% correct
Report Charlton2005 April 8, 2016 8:38 AM BST
for completeness La Reve also taken out under that rule. i used the 36 days instead of 50. all else should be as given in the rules.
Report jasey April 8, 2016 10:47 AM BST
Charlton this race has changed from 10 years ago only Royal Auclair out of them would even get in this years Grand National and he would be on around 10st 6.
Top of the handicap has always had less runners.
In the last 10 years horses with  11 stone and over have had 5 winners
Report Charlton2005 April 9, 2016 5:28 PM BST
Report Dan Chipowski April 9, 2016 6:01 PM BST
The horse had never won a chase, so he was gone on the very first stat.

Nor is on your list of horses that you 'backed'.

Still, enjoy the booming. Crazy
Report Charlton2005 April 9, 2016 6:06 PM BST
PTPs qualify.

you back a few losers or what?
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