Grand National

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05 Mar 16 18:14
Date Joined: 05 May 03
| Topic/replies: 26,944 | Blogger: Facts's blog
My GN selection.
Was very impressive in the Grimthorpe.
I really like the horses attitude, he travels well, and has a real engine.Jumps well too.
Had taken the 33/1 a week ago ,and have gone in again at 16/1.
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Report Facts March 6, 2016 12:37 PM GMT
The only negative, is that PW has tipped it Cry
Report The Dragon March 6, 2016 2:10 PM GMT
looks solid ew maybe the way to go, ground dependent also i would have thought
Report Facts March 6, 2016 2:59 PM GMT
Don't bet ew !

Interesting. What ground is best for him do you think ?
. He has winning form on Good/Soft ,Soft and Heavy.
I know the trainer thinks better than Saturday's ground( soft) would be ideal.
But he's such a game,strong travelling sort. He's progressing and would certainly be now carrying more weight in
the National if yesterday's performance was taken into account.Happy
Report ashleigh March 9, 2016 9:17 AM GMT
12 lb well in according to the handicapper.
Report charlieecho March 19, 2016 11:36 PM GMT
Good luck Facts.
Personally I don't think he has the class or the speed to win the race.
There's no strong back form to him and his biggest win was the Grimthorpe but that was a weak race.
Report Facts March 22, 2016 7:29 PM GMT
Thanks Charlie.

I really think he has an excellent chance. weak race or not - all he can do is win  - and he's done plenty of winning  to date. I love his attitude and the way he races powerfully.
Report impossible123 April 1, 2016 10:32 PM BST
Is this a penalty kick?
Report Roger The Butler April 1, 2016 10:44 PM BST
I agree that I think he has neither the class nor the speed, but more importantly he doesn't have the experience. Name me a National winner that has only had 8 chase starts (don't think one exists).

That said, if I had a fancy price about something nearly a stone well in I would obviously be excited like those that have that are, and be defending him, but I cannot see him even being in the first 5.
Report Facts April 2, 2016 8:19 AM BST
Think you're wrong Roger. Hope so ! Happy
Report impossible123 April 2, 2016 10:21 AM BST
Jim McGrath's fancy as well - I think we are done for good!
Report jasey April 2, 2016 1:02 PM BST
Jesus that bloke is the grim reaper,you should all lay off
Report Facts April 2, 2016 6:14 PM BST
Report impossible123 April 4, 2016 3:53 PM BST
Despite being his 1st run over these fences I'd see The Last Samuri disputing favouritism with Many Clouds soon - single figure for sure at least.
Report Facts April 4, 2016 4:04 PM BST
I think you could be right.
Report Eeternaloptimist April 4, 2016 6:50 PM BST
I've been turning the race over in my mind the last few days and he was the last one I had a good look at. He's not much bigger than a pit pony and he was on and off the bridle during the Grimthorpe so unless it is very soft I'd question whether he can lie up. Not my type when it comes to this race.
Report regvarney April 4, 2016 7:40 PM BST
gotta agree with eternal, I thought he was anything but a strong travelling type, def came on and off during the race, imo...
however, will like most going, and should def stay well...
I don't think it will win but have backed it 'cos I follow Kim Bailey blind since my mate had horses with him in the late 80's onwards  and can't have him winning a GN without me being on
Report Howdi April 4, 2016 7:41 PM BST
love that last line Reg Cool
Report impossible123 April 4, 2016 8:20 PM BST
It took Gigginstown another 10 years before winning the Cheltenham Gold again with Don Cossack, and it's about right time Kim Bailey winning the Grand National again, with The Last Samuri - here's hoping!
Report jasey April 4, 2016 8:56 PM BST
Beware the Grimthorpe.
Race is a shocking guide.
Report impossible123 April 4, 2016 8:59 PM BST
Thanks but no worries, it's the Grand National not the Gold Cup - a bit of fun, as always!
Report Facts April 4, 2016 9:11 PM BST
TLS  was on my National bet even before The Grimthorpe Happy
Report ZenMaster April 4, 2016 10:29 PM BST
Was travelling well until the 12th in the Grimthorpe, Bass had him wider than anything else then the horse fiddled the fence, lost plenty of ground but then travelled up powerfully again.

My take on it was that the leaders went off at a fair clip, and they faded badly. Hard to knock TLS in that race, although i understand the comments about his size, plus he was fiddly at a few. But looks to have a powerful behind with a huge amount of spring with his energy.
Report Roger The Butler April 4, 2016 10:39 PM BST
My other half has a powerful behind but she wouldn't win the Grand National.
Report Facts April 4, 2016 10:42 PM BST
You don't have to be as big as your other half either to win a National.
Report Roger The Butler April 4, 2016 10:43 PM BST
Report regvarney April 4, 2016 10:43 PM BST
beat me to it, roger, but anyway...
the last time I saw a backside as big as my missus', it was chasing a jeep in Daktari !
Report Roger The Butler April 4, 2016 10:43 PM BST
(that was to Facts).
Report regvarney April 4, 2016 10:44 PM BST
yeh, got it, although would equally apply to me
Report Facts April 4, 2016 10:48 PM BST
And to Roger of course Laugh
Report Facts April 4, 2016 10:49 PM BST
What's your idea of the winner Roger ?
Report Roger The Butler April 4, 2016 10:54 PM BST
I'm keen on Holywell and The Druid's Nephew.

If Highland Lodge got in (he won't probably as is still no.45) I'd have a slight play on him too.
Report ZenMaster April 4, 2016 10:56 PM BST
You will need better ground for those two selections Roger i feel.
Report Facts April 4, 2016 10:56 PM BST
Holywell ? Interesting. You don't think Jonjo 's Shutthefrontdoor is his main hope ?
Report Roger The Butler April 4, 2016 11:03 PM BST
Zen, yes I want it to dry out a bit. Good to soft would be fine. Good would be even better.

Facts, Holywell has been to Cheltenham then Aintree the last three years:

1st at Cheltenham (Pertemps Final)
2nd at Aintree (G1 Liverpool Hurdle)

1st at Cheltenham (G3 handicap chase)
1st at Aintree (G1 Mildmay novices chase)

4th at Cheltenham (G1 Gold Cup)
3rd at Aintree (G1 Betfred Bowl)

2nd at Cheltenham (G3 handicap chase off top weight)

Clearly saves his best for the big occasion and is a spring festival horse. I don't like Shutthefrontdoor as I don't like horses that have got round before without being good enough to win.
Report ZenMaster April 4, 2016 11:06 PM BST
Just to add Roger, Holywell saves his best for when Jonjo puts blinkers on him on decent ground.
Holywell has a massive chance, if he gets his ground.
Report impossible123 April 4, 2016 11:17 PM BST
Nah, it has to be The Last Samuri, why? It just has a ring to it when the result is announced on TV after a gruelling tough race. - it will be so apt.
Report ZenMaster April 5, 2016 8:54 AM BST
I would be against The Last Samuri purely because of it's lack of chasing experience.
With only 8 chases, he would need to smash this important stat...
Yes he has 4 PTP runs, but only 2 completed and we don't really count the PTP's.
As noted he isn't the biggest and i think his jumping is overrated.

Many Clouds & Numbersixvalverde had the least chase experience of all the winners of the last 25 years, both had 10 chases prior to their respective GN victories.
Report Facts April 5, 2016 9:07 AM BST
Quite a few past  winners of the Grand National prove you can be small, but still be successful.
Report sixtwosix April 5, 2016 9:10 AM BST
Seagram being the prime example but .........the softer the ground , the more difficult for smaller horses to handle the fences . The word soft already being mentioned in the going would be a big negative for me with this horse.
Report GoBallistic April 5, 2016 10:30 AM BST
Suny Bay wasn't big (stocky would be a good description) but it didn't stop him carrying a big weight round there on bottomless ground
Report ZenMaster April 5, 2016 10:47 AM BST
Suny Bay was not below average in size for chaser. He was a decent size, The Last Samuri is like Dennis Wise. where as Suny Bay was more a Mark Hughes
Report GoBallistic April 5, 2016 11:35 AM BST
Timeform described him as "compact, robust". Not sure how they describe The Last Samuri - I don't buy it any more. Neither will The Last Samuri be carrying 12-0 on heavy ground
Report Can't Catch Me April 5, 2016 11:45 AM BST
Fair play to anyone on at big prices, but the horse looks terrible value now to my eyes.
Report Mooono April 5, 2016 12:04 PM BST
This fella wouldn't look out of place in the Shetland pony Grand National Laugh But as women say, size doesn't matter. That's a total lie though
Report ditchbert April 5, 2016 12:29 PM BST
Personally I would be wary of backing anything in the front half dozen in the betting.
Bookies took a pounding at Cheltenham and you can be sure they will get it back at Aintree.
No idea what might win but i've a feeling it's going to be an outsider.
Report Eeternaloptimist April 5, 2016 6:31 PM BST

Of course it's a lie. Especially if you were a midget and had to jump five feet in the air to get on the bed to pump them.
Report school of science April 6, 2016 1:05 PM BST
Timeform "close-coupled gelding"
Report ZenMaster April 6, 2016 1:47 PM BST
Close-coupled, equine version.

a characteristic of conformation, used usually to refer to a horse, meaning that the body is short and compact with no weakness in the loin; the costal arch to stifle distance is short and the flank region well muscled.

His flank region is certainly well muscled, but those little legs? 

If he takes well to the fences i think he could romp home.
Report Somerset Sam April 7, 2016 8:00 PM BST
Has had only 8 chase runs, wont mind some cut in the ground and Kim Bailey knows the time of day. You could crab that he has quite a flat style of getting from a to b over his fences but in the national anything can happen regardless. I'm on at 38, so for once feeling quite chuffed with myself.

An honourable mention also to Morning Assembly who beat Don Cossack as a novice, and Holywell who's form gives him a great chance if he takes to the fences.
Report impossible123 April 8, 2016 10:38 PM BST
This is on the walk, obscurity or fame?
Report northanlite April 9, 2016 1:43 AM BST
i quite fancy this but the stats are against it. horses with 3 words in their title have never won.
you can't fight the stats Silly
unless you count Rhyme "n" Reason but an "n" doesn't really count.
Report Somerset Sam April 9, 2016 8:38 AM BST
It has to count or else it would've been called Rhyme Reason. Grin

Reminds me of the joke why does Edward Woodward have 4 d's in his name?
If he didnt he would've been called Ewar Woowar. I'll get my coat.Whoops
Report northanlite April 9, 2016 3:12 PM BST
breaking news. I stuck a cut out of the field from the paper on my dart borad, closed my eyes and threw left handed. missed the board twice but hit it 3rd time. Right in between the a and the m of Samurai.
If there is a better system i haven't heard of it Silly
Report impossible123 April 9, 2016 5:33 PM BST
A very gallant run, just beaten by the better horse on the day I am afraid.
Report Facts April 9, 2016 5:36 PM BST
Report ZenMaster April 9, 2016 5:38 PM BST
Jumped so well for one with little legs.
Report impossible123 April 9, 2016 5:47 PM BST
Excellent jumper and never a moment of worry at the fences and proud to be on despite coming in 2nd.
Report Facts April 9, 2016 5:48 PM BST
Very unlucky. The rain beat him.
Report Somerset Sam April 9, 2016 5:55 PM BST
A brilliant run from the horse showing guts and courage to be so prominent for so long. I initially thought he was doing too much early on but he got into a great rhythm and jumped fantastically.

Coming to the elbow my eye was always being drawn to the eventual winner though. Well done to all concerned, a marvellous race.
Report Eeternaloptimist April 9, 2016 6:02 PM BST
Very unlucky gents. Grand effort.
Report sixtwosix April 9, 2016 6:12 PM BST
Fantastic  performance , jumped out of this world , didn't see even the hint of a mistake.
Report Facts April 9, 2016 7:04 PM BST
Next year Happy
Report ZenMaster April 9, 2016 7:17 PM BST
Weighted to the hilt next year
Report Facts April 9, 2016 7:21 PM BST
Report regvarney April 9, 2016 8:28 PM BST
as posted earlier, always follow this trainer blind, had a decent e/w bet at bigger prices than today...
never felt at any stage until turning from home that I wasn't on the winner...
jumped every fence like a stag and tried his little heart out...
must have traded 6/4 ish ? don't know, watched race in pub, just got back
Report Roger The Butler April 10, 2016 12:09 AM BST
Good work each way backers. Cross him off for next year though. As usual, the winner was having his first shot at it.
Report Facts April 10, 2016 2:31 AM BST
Agreed reg.Lovely run all the way, jumped every fence without a mistake.Well ridden by David Bass  Really thought he'd got it. Even jumping the last , knowing he stays and battles his heart out. Beat off Vic's Canvas, but couldn't match the finishing pace of the winner.
Report sixtwosix April 10, 2016 11:44 AM BST
He looked a likely winner on the second circuit stalking the leaders as did Vieux Lion Rouge ,the pair going as well as Rule The World after Bechers 2nd time.
Report sixtwosix April 10, 2016 11:44 AM BST
oops wrong thread.
Report IrisDeBalme April 10, 2016 9:13 PM BST
quite gutting he didn't win - deserved it really considering how small he is - will definitely back this horse next year - loved the way he jumped round... it was impressive ...

But unlucky for those who backed him this year!
Report forgotmyusername April 11, 2016 4:29 PM BST
Will be close to top weight next year but could still be a huge player as feel the rain just turned it against him, good to soft would have been fine, soft hmmmm. Probably wrong, but the way he has been improving he could end up in some top class chases next year a la Master Oats from the yard in the 90's who won a Gold Cup the year after his Aintree bid. He certainly travels and jumps far better than was imaginable at the start of the season.
Report Rory B. Bellows April 11, 2016 8:28 PM BST
25/1 for next year.
Report sixtwosix April 11, 2016 8:43 PM BST
Won't have as good a chance again , will be on higher handicap mark for a start.

In addition in this modified era , horses are not placing more than once very often at all.
Report ZenMaster April 12, 2016 9:45 AM BST
Connections will be thinking that on good/soft they may have won.
The likelihood of it being a bog next year is high.
He jumped so well on only his 9th chase.
If they campaign him just for the GN, perhaps they can get him down to 155.
Report ZenMaster April 12, 2016 9:45 AM BST
The likelihood of it being a bog next year is LOW
Report Roger The Butler April 12, 2016 10:50 PM BST
Ah, you've been on that 360 day forecast website haven't you?
Report kavvie April 13, 2016 11:14 AM BST
i backed him.ran a gallant race.but he will be up at least 12 lbs next year.impossible
Report Facts April 13, 2016 5:30 PM BST
Not if he improves by 14 lbs Laugh
Report impossible123 April 13, 2016 6:02 PM BST
I think his chance of winning the GN is behind him now with the likes of Don Poli, Carlingford Lough, possibly Valseur Lido and Djakadam next year. And looking back I also think The Last Samuri ran too freely and too much too early.
Report Facts April 13, 2016 7:59 PM BST
He's an exuberant horse
Report ZenMaster April 13, 2016 8:10 PM BST
The Last Samuri although was on a revised mark of 161 before the GN, he has actually been revised down to 159.
Still 10lb higher than his 149 mark in the GN.

So Can they campaign him to reduce the mark of 159 down to lets say 153?
The Druids Nephew has been revised down to 148.
So that Grimthorpe mark by the OH has been deemed an over reaction.

So hopefully TLS isn't completely weighted out of it for next year.
As stated, he ran a blinder.
Possibly the best performance for many a year of horses only having 8 chase starts.
Report Facts April 15, 2016 7:04 PM BST
Start backing him now Cool
Report ZenMaster April 15, 2016 8:19 PM BST
Only 6lb between him and Don Poli though, i would like to see more than a stone.

Good/soft ground next year and he will improve.

Native River is still too young but surely he is an out and out GN horse.
Report impossible123 April 16, 2016 1:06 PM BST
If Don Poli (DP) is Aintree GN bound next year and runs on current rating ie behind Many Clouds DP will take a lot of beating. The question is will Gigginstown say yes (?), DP is still only 8 next year. Let's hope you along with Carlingford Lough.
Report Chaplins Club May 23, 2016 2:50 PM BST
Test 1-2-3
Report Capt__F July 26, 2016 12:29 AM BST
4 5 6 & 7
Report Facts December 4, 2016 6:50 PM GMT
Great run on Saturday in the Becher Chase.
He just jumps these fences brilliantly.
Have taken more of the 20/1 Happy
Report Mully February 4, 2017 8:20 PM GMT works again. Thanks sister-account Chaplins Club.
Report Facts March 5, 2017 6:31 AM GMT
Happy with that run Happy
Report Bindaree March 7, 2017 8:55 AM GMT
I don't think he did travel well, was struggling a long way from home and was beat a long way. Only passed other horses that faded. I thought he was very disappointing and looked like he can't cope with his new rating.
Report Facts March 9, 2017 1:56 AM GMT
His 3rd in The Becher Hcap at Aintree in December, off of 159, would suggest otherwise Imo.
Report sixtwosix March 9, 2017 10:09 AM GMT
In the Becher and Grand National he travelled effortlessly.
In his last race he was not travelling , was dropped and then stayed on past very tired horses.

That was not the performance of a horse who will carry top weight to victory in April imo.
Report Facts March 10, 2017 3:47 PM GMT
3 months since his previous race and 5 weeks  to go before the National,  I think we'll see a difference .
Report Catch Me ifyoucan April 7, 2017 8:29 PM BST
TOP WEIGHT for a reason.....Good firm ground horse ?
Report dunlaying January 7, 2018 3:21 PM GMT
His last run was arguably his best effort. He could be a player this year.
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