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Zazu
05 Mar 16 15:51
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Date Joined: 06 Apr 11
| Topic/replies: 26,627 | Blogger: Zazu's blog
Running on strong at the finish last year, still has low weight but not seen it being mentioned anywhere
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Report lucky22 March 6, 2016 10:32 PM GMT
fancied this last year and got mightily close, just don't know how they can get him stronger in those last few furlongs and so i'll be seeking another angle this year!!
Report PJay March 8, 2016 11:35 PM GMT
That's a strange way to look at it lucky22. The race is run over 4m4f and every furlong counts. He went through a couple of fences, including Bechers. He was closing fast at the finish. It's entirely likely that if he ran the exact same race he'd win this year.

It's the Grand National and they're not machines. If you think you have a bit of confidence about a horse being among the places then he should be value to win. A 5f flat handicap would usually have different winners if run multiple times. You can be sure the National would.
Report PJay March 8, 2016 11:48 PM GMT
I think he has a decent chance. Grade 1 winner, loves Aintree and has a great record over the National fences. A closing second last year and this has been the plan since. It was reported that he came out of last year's race in great shape too - if I remember right Tom said he only lost the weight that an average hurdler would. Won very well since the weights came out and Tom reported that he wasn't yet at his best. He also reckons he knows the horse better this year.
Decent chance at the price though the 33s before his win was more appealing.
It's the Grand National and like them all he needs a trouble free round.
Report lucky22 March 12, 2016 11:18 PM GMT
Some very valid points you make there PJay and I agree with most of it.

I should elaborate a bit more, I can see him winning but what I do each year is run my own stats, find one or two that fit the profile I'm looking for, and then start backing them at healthy odds. Saint Are was in there last year and I backed him accordingly. This year I am doing the same again but am looking for one that may be a bit more under the radar!!
Report Zazu March 15, 2016 12:54 PM GMT
Everytime I rewatch the race I'm more confident
Report Sultan March 20, 2016 12:36 PM GMT
Very much a forgotten horse of the race Many Clouds only beat him 1 3/4 lengths last year and he is 2lb better off this year. Effectively giving them equal chances. His win last time out should means he moves up to number 48 in the list and makes a run pretty certain. Clearly the value selection at general 25-1 compared to 8 or 9 to 1 Many Clouds.
Report Sultan March 20, 2016 1:00 PM GMT
Also racing post ratings for his last win was 4lb higher than for his National 2nd(which matched his highest rating of his career which was  at Aintree festival 2012) suggesting an improved horse this year. Many Clouds did not have to run up to his National rating to win a race he should have won last time out.
Report Sultan March 23, 2016 10:56 AM GMT
Now up to 41 in list looks all set for run
Report Sultan April 2, 2016 1:20 PM BST
Has had breathing op before last run and trainer thinks he is a far better horse for it
Report jasey April 2, 2016 1:28 PM BST
I don't think he can win but cracking place bet and going in my combination tricast.
Report Sultan April 2, 2016 1:47 PM BST
jasey you think he will be in 1st 3 but can't win? Why?
Report jasey April 2, 2016 4:10 PM BST
Third pop at it m8 puts me off.
When I say place I mean first 5 is what I am looking at.
Report sixtwosix April 2, 2016 5:51 PM BST
Good second last year , nowhere near 9th the year before ....don't see it being 3rd time lucky myself.
Report Zazu April 2, 2016 6:09 PM BST
Into 16/1 generally today.
Report the bloob April 2, 2016 6:27 PM BST
I wouldn't be put off at all by the fact that he's having his 3rd run in the race, a close 2nd last year and the 2lb pull in the weights with Many Clouds this year would have been enough to finish ahead last year. When the horse ran 3 years ago he was rated 142 and carried 10st 8, this year he's rated 150 and is carrying 10st 5. Also was a 7 y/o that time and they have a dreadful record in the race. This year the horse has a lovely weight, comes here in great form, is the optimum age and has the experience over the GN fences. What's not to like about his chances? I've been backing at 25/1 but I still think 20/1 is great value
Report Roger The Butler April 2, 2016 9:06 PM BST
I'm quite happy to stick with my theory that the winner will be completing the race for the first time as is the case almost every single year. So will only be looking at debutants and those that have shown an aptitude for the fences but have not yet shown what they can do at the finish. There are loads of Saint Ares in recent years that have run well, looked potential future winners and have not done it. Putting a line through anything that has been round before.
Report impossible123 April 2, 2016 9:43 PM BST
If a line could be drawn through anything that has been round before and had been unsuccessful that would leave just a handful of those left with potentials/handicapped positive eg Silviniaco Conti (unlikely to stay I reckon), The Last Samuri, Carlingford Lough (if soft), Gallant Oscar and Holywell (moody). I like The Last Samuri despite not having done the distance/Aintree, and Jim McGrath fancying it too.
Report Roger The Butler April 2, 2016 9:51 PM BST
You've got to cut the list down somehow with 40 starters, and that has been a reliable place to start over the years. I would be keeping The Druid's Nephew in as a non-completer and am very keen on him. If he'd got round last year I wouldn't be.
Report impossible123 April 2, 2016 10:24 PM BST
Could be a profitable technique to employ in the Grand National eg State Of Play, never won but repeatedly placed 3x but fell 4th, and Seabass is another; The Druid's Nephew is 1 of 4 of mine against the field too.
Report the bloob April 2, 2016 10:26 PM BST
Roger, it's a fair point about debutants having a great record, I just feel as though Saint Are is nailed on to get a place at least (barring any mishap), horses that have run well before very often repeat (Alvarado last year a good example), and it's only a matter of time before one wins. Sometimes trends just come about by chance, there is no good reason why being a debutant should be an advantage (unless a horse has run well in previous years and been given a big weight increase). Horses like Comply or Die and Hedgehunter got hammered by the handicapper and nearly repeated the following year, I think it's worth looking at horses that ran well previously and haven't gone up in the weights
Report Billbullets April 3, 2016 12:22 AM BST
If the rain comes hes not the same horse imo and he would have won me a fortune if winning last year so I do have a soft spot for the horse.
Report jasey April 3, 2016 1:56 AM BST
The race this year is a better race so chances are Saint Are finds a few to good again.
Report Sultan April 3, 2016 11:10 AM BST
The point most people are missing is Saint Are improved on the form of his 2nd in last year's National to win last time out. He is due to go up in handicap 4lb. How many of the previously placed National horses to run in it the next year could say the same.
Report impossible123 April 3, 2016 11:23 AM BST
One of those is Cause Of Causes, a good chance if making the cut!
Report PJay April 3, 2016 1:28 PM BST
It's his third go at it but crucially only his second for Tom George. He was also third in a Becher in 2014. Before his National runs he won the Listed Handicap Chase at the National meeting in 2012 and won the Gr1 Sefton Novices Hurdle at the National meeting in 2011.

Tom George is in flying form, probably the form of his life. 6 winners from his last 13. Probably more winners in March than he's ever had in a month.

Saint Are is a lovely horse to be on at big prices. At the 16/1 now available he's not quite so appealing. There are plenty there with chances.
Report Facts April 4, 2016 9:52 AM BST
In his racing career, He's never won back to back races.
Report Sultan April 4, 2016 10:31 AM BST
Don't think not winning back to back races relevant. Last year won race before National and achieved a then career best performance in National. Winning his last race is certainly not a negative
Report Facts April 4, 2016 11:51 AM BST
Just saying
Report dyno-layer April 4, 2016 11:52 AM BST
Soft ground would be a bigger issue for this horse
Report Roger The Butler April 4, 2016 7:46 PM BST
Facts, The Last Samuri has never won three chases in a row.
Report Facts April 4, 2016 9:13 PM BST
Irrelevant
Report PJay April 4, 2016 9:51 PM BST

Apr 4, 2016 -- 9:52AM, Facts wrote:


In his racing career, He's never won back to back races.


That's one of the worst stats/trends I've ever heard.

Report Roger The Butler April 4, 2016 9:59 PM BST
Just saying.
Report Can't Catch Me April 4, 2016 10:06 PM BST
I don't think he's ever won a race after 5pm either.
Report impossible123 April 4, 2016 10:13 PM BST
Nevertheless, there will always be a 1st time, big time!
Report Facts April 4, 2016 10:25 PM BST
Horses unable to win two races on the trot is an old statistic, often used by form readers. But nonetheless, has an element of truth to it, in that some horses can't maintain the form needed to win two on the bounce, or are unable to overcome any penalty.
Surprised posters haven't come across this before.
Report Can't Catch Me April 4, 2016 10:28 PM BST
Was only being facetious facts Blush Have heard it before, but wouldn't place too much emphasis on it myself. Stats
like that in isolation can be a bit misleading Imo.
Report Roger The Butler April 4, 2016 10:38 PM BST
(Unlike the one about only winning the RSA if you have gone novice chasing straight from novice hurdling).
Report PJay April 4, 2016 10:46 PM BST

Apr 4, 2016 -- 10:25PM, Facts wrote:


Horses unable to win two races on the trot is an old statistic, often used by form readers. But nonetheless, has an element of truth to it, in that some horses can't maintain the form needed to win two on the bounce, or are unable to overcome any penalty.Surprised posters haven't come across this before.


It's lazy 'form reading'. The laziest of form reading. Does he flop next time after winning? No he doesn't. Is your 'stat' relevant to the horse? No of course it's not.

Too many trends followers look for this bullsh1t without looking at the form. You find some good opinions/debates in these forums, but as I said this is one of the worst stats/trends I've ever heard in here. I'm surprised it's from you Facts.

Report Facts April 4, 2016 10:52 PM BST
Ffs ! I am only repeating what is often said. I didn't say I follow the reasoning myself. It certainly wouldn't stop me from backing a horse. Stats are there to be broken imo
Report PJay April 4, 2016 11:09 PM BST
The horse was placed in his first five runs for Tom George. These included two tough Cheltenham handicaps, a Becher and a Grand National. He was a fast closing 2nd in the National after a win. The horse clearly has no issues with putting two good performances together.
Like every other horse in the National he will probably lose but if you come back and tell me it's because he won last time I'll find you and stick needles in your eyes.
Report impossible123 April 4, 2016 11:20 PM BST
Take it easy, it is a only a game after all!
Report Facts April 5, 2016 2:21 AM BST
PJay

Take water with it next time..
Report PJay April 5, 2016 10:12 AM BST
Laugh
Report PJay April 5, 2016 4:53 PM BST
Bit about him here for anyone interested: http://www.racinguk.com/news/article/42120/grand-national-2016-george-hoping...
Report PJay April 5, 2016 4:53 PM BST
www.racinguk.com/news/article/42120/grand-national-2016-george-hoping-saint-...
Report PJay April 5, 2016 4:54 PM BST
Cry

http://tinyurl.com/jemxnjs
Report BarryM April 9, 2016 1:33 AM BST
At the weights he basically has exactly the same chance as Many Clouds. He has always shown a big preference for decent ground though. Rain would be a big worry.
On the other hand, Tom George could win with a rusty bike at the moment.
Report Zazu April 9, 2016 5:17 AM BST
Very excited with my usual unsubstantiated Grand National optimism  Cool
Report Catch Me ifyoucan March 27, 2017 11:34 PM BST
Tom George reveals Grand National jockey plans: Adrian Heskin on Double Shuffle, with Davy Russell booked for Saint Are.
Report sixtwosix March 28, 2017 1:53 PM BST
Good second last year , nowhere near 9th the year before ....don't see it being 3rd time lucky myself.

It sure a'int gonna be fourth time lucky.

One of the very first names to cross off.
Report TYSON 2 March 28, 2017 4:03 PM BST
2nd in 2015,pu last year (couldnt handle the soft/heavy ground) Wt. about right - must have decent ground. likes the course. I think may place!
Report GoldCupWinner April 2, 2017 12:44 PM BST
I think it has a great chance on good ground. Only 4lb higher than when second two years ago, last run confirms he is in the same sort of form as he was back then. 40/1 is a huge price for a horse who who has proven his credentials over the distance and fences. I think there are a lot of doubts about those at the front end of the market.
Report sixtwosix April 2, 2017 4:35 PM BST
Not a hope  , way past it's best plodding around in veterans races .......
Report kingG111111 April 2, 2017 9:08 PM BST
Anyone who backs this horse is a mug punter, has no chance of winning
Report rogerthebutler April 3, 2017 9:06 AM BST

Apr 2, 2017 -- 9:08PM, kingG111111 wrote:


Anyone who backs this horse is a mug punter, has no chance of winning


Great - so put up a few quid to lay at 1000/1 please for this 'mug punter'.

Or are you just all mouth like everyone else who comes in here, sh1teing on about a horses 'chances', with no reference to price whatsoever?

Report PJay April 3, 2017 9:31 AM BST

Apr 2, 2017 -- 9:08PM, kingG111111 wrote:


Anyone who backs this horse is a mug punter, has no chance of winning


Predicting an almost 1/50 chance is a brave move.


There's a definite advantage to having a prominent runner and the booking of Davy is a big plus. He'll prefer the ground this year but he just needs to avoid those mistakes. Second to Many Clouds but he has a bit to prove now I think. Falling in the Becher wasn't a good prep, though it didn't stop Pineau De Re.

Report Zazu April 7, 2017 9:51 PM BST
lets go Cool
Report Bindaree April 7, 2017 10:04 PM BST
Let's face it, if this horse wins, which it might, it just shows how much Phil Smith has destroyed the National !!
Report sixtwosix April 8, 2017 7:11 PM BST
Hold my hands up , got this one terribly wrong , as I did Cause Of Causes who I thought would tail off. If someone told me Cause Of Causes was right behind the leader two out I would have put my mortgage on him winning from there.
My 3 probables were Saphir De Rhey , Vieux Lion Rouge and One For Arthur( not aftertiming , I gave this one a big shout on the thread for the horse).
Report TYSON 2 April 9, 2017 10:59 AM BST
Cracking price for a place though!! for a mug punter!
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