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tommy2
26 Mar 14 23:15
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Date Joined: 13 Jan 02
| Topic/replies: 1,850 | Blogger: tommy2's blog
looks like he might get a run. a bit of rain would help, but he is by Presenting.
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Report Roger The Butler March 28, 2014 2:40 PM GMT
Yes Bogskar - no 7 year old winner since 1940.
Report shockster March 28, 2014 3:43 PM GMT
Roger - you find me a 66/1 shot with no negatives.

I agree he's not a trend horse but on form there is no way he should be 66/1. Happy with my bet.
Report Roger The Butler March 28, 2014 3:56 PM GMT
Fair enough and you're right. I have backed horses at 66/1 and 50/1 who I am very keen on but people could criticise on a few things.

But 7 year olds do not even place in Nationals. So I don't like the product, and I'm out. But I wish you luck.
Report jasey March 28, 2014 4:04 PM GMT
Shockster.
Raz De Maree is a big price trends horse if thats what your after
Report shockster March 28, 2014 6:04 PM GMT
Jasey I'm def not a trends punter.  Fair enough to you guys who like them, but I prefer to look at form in most instances.  Not saying I never use a trend.  Example I will always be against 5 yr olds for Champ Hurdle and always against past winners of the Gold Cup in the big race it's self. Therefore I can see why lots would be against a 7 yr old and maybe at 20/1 I would be but 66/1 is a different matter and I think it's worth the risk. I've also backed Triolo D'alene at 150 on here before the Hennessy and he's only 7.  Before I get accused of aftertiming on the price, It's on another thread before the hennessy.  It's all about price to me.  I think Tidal bay has a chance and he's 13 but not bet him at the price.  For the record I'm also on Pineau de Re 40/1, Double Seven 33/1 and  Vintage Star 100 on here. % against the field.
Report shockster March 28, 2014 6:06 PM GMT
5 against the field. Whoops
Report jasey March 28, 2014 6:29 PM GMT
I do like trends but i have backed 7 year olds in the past.
If any horse has the luck and is good enough on the day it will win regardless so good luck with your picks.
Report houseofpain March 29, 2014 5:50 AM GMT
How are we looking now run wise, no 46 ?
Report Rydal March 29, 2014 6:10 AM GMT
I make it 47 or 48 (Swing Bill could get the nod over him).
Report tommy2 March 29, 2014 10:59 AM GMT
Above him I reckon there are 4 almost certainly out, and about another 10 quite doubtful, judging by exchange odds. So very optimistic he will get a run. BTW I got £50ew with BF sportsbook over the last 10 days 66/1, but they wont allow me any more
Report sixtwosix March 31, 2014 12:01 PM BST
I don't see the relevance of his age , because he is taking part in a race that now looks like the Scottish National not the Aintree version of tradition.

This fellow travels , jumps , stays and has no weight ....he's the one for me.
Report shockster March 31, 2014 12:29 PM BST
Still needs 1 more to drop out!!!!!!
Report sixtwosix March 31, 2014 1:43 PM BST
Can't see all 40 standing their ground , usually one or two on the Topham for starters.
Report shockster March 31, 2014 2:15 PM BST
Yes 626 agree and Liam Cusack has already said Last Time Dalbain is likely to run in the Topham.
Report differentdrum March 31, 2014 4:26 PM BST
Think you might still be able to get 50/1 which would be the best value bet currently on offer. The favourite is a ridiculous price. Well beaten from a winning position last year and hasn't any race for over two years.
Report sixtwosix March 31, 2014 5:15 PM BST
I think 'youknowwho' will tip this fellow up on Saturday ....the price will vanish then.
Report tommy2 March 31, 2014 8:58 PM BST
Thought he would have made it in to the race today, so a few more days of stress and worry! The concern is that the ones above have paid a lot of money in entrance fees to stay in this long, so may well just take their chance. A couple with 200+ exchange odds, so all hope isn't lost. Had a bit more on at 50/1 ew 5 places. Head down, steam in!
Report tommy2 March 31, 2014 9:04 PM BST
One last desperate hope would be that the POTS withdraw Buckers Bridge to give Goonyella a run.
Report shockster April 1, 2014 8:23 AM BST
Good point that Tommy2.  Made me have a look at Buckers B properly too.  Apart from a PTP he's not won beyond 2.5 miles but his last run doesn't read bad at the weights now over 3miles. Have had an EW nibble on that one just in case. NRNB of course.
Report houseofpain April 1, 2014 1:18 PM BST
Now need 2 out, swing bill won the ballot, aarghhh.
Report differentdrum April 1, 2014 1:26 PM BST
Very unlikely to get two come out at this stage. Left with the prospect of 13yo running instead of a potential winner. Bookmakers saved. Should have skipped the ballot and just put in the shorter priced runner.
Report differentdrum April 1, 2014 1:26 PM BST
Can hardly pull out Buckers Bridge to allow Swing Bill to run.
Report sixtwosix April 1, 2014 4:10 PM BST
Still got a chance , but not certain.

Too many 'dead wood' runners with marks reflecting ability they no longer haveabove him .

Shakalakaboomboom , Burton Port , Across The Bay , Lion Na Bearnai , Prince De Beauchene , Golan Way ......to name six who will not be troubling the judge even for a place.
Report Rydal April 1, 2014 5:17 PM BST
In previous years, a fair few have dropped out after this stage. I wouldn't give up hope.
Report jasey April 1, 2014 5:34 PM BST
Goonyella is a million miles from the class required to win this.
SIXTWOSIX i would take all them horses except Golan Way to finish in front of Goonyella
Report Alkeyhole April 1, 2014 6:31 PM BST
I wouldn't bank on Burton Port being past it, still young & with lots of class form and came 2nd last time out.

The Grand National is littered with horses who've won it after appearing to be past their best.
Report shockster April 1, 2014 6:59 PM BST
The more I look at Buckers Bridge, the more I like it. At 66/1 EW I think it's a cracking bet. His last race was The Bobbyjo Chase behind On His Own, who had just won the Thyestes Chase before this and then franked the form big style in the Gold Cup. On that run he's not badly in at the weights at all. He's quite lightly raced and open to improvement over longer trips although there is a chance he won't stay but at 66/1 has to be worth a bet. NRNB is a must (170 on here but I'd rather have NRNB)as he may be sacrificed for Goonyella but if he runs I want to be with him for the same ownership and won't have to worry about the colours when I'm watching.

Every cloud and all that.Excited

That's 6 for me if they all run.  Too many really but shortest price taken 33/1 so we'll see. Good luck.
Report sixtwosix April 1, 2014 7:07 PM BST
It's all about opinions , will be good to look at different peoples choices once the race is run .....at least we are not aftertiming.

Apart from Goonyella  , I think Teaforthree and Rocky Creek look obvious possibilities . In addition I have a sneaky feeling that Colbert Station could run a cracker. He tips up far too often for confidence , but his falls have all been when still travelling well. These new hurdles may well suit him.
Report shockster April 1, 2014 7:17 PM BST
Yes sure it's just my interpretation but using On His Own as a yardstick let's look at Teaforthree and Triolo D'Alene (I'm on this one) in the Gold Cup, and I appreciate that it was a warm up for the National, but they were going for it at 2 out. T43 was beaten 21L and TD btn 30L off levels.  Buckers was beaten 17L in the Bobbyjo giving OHO 5lb.  T43 9/1Fav, BB 66/1.

I know these things rarely work out like this but the price of this one is wrong IMO.
Report marychain1 April 1, 2014 8:19 PM BST
f*ckinell sixtwosix, you've named three of mine there!
Report marychain1 April 1, 2014 8:21 PM BST
Gold Cup was a total freak of a race, using that form literally is pretty dangerous imo
Report shockster April 1, 2014 8:38 PM BST
I agree in principal Marychain about the Gold Cup,  My point is that On His Own has had 3 cracking good runs on the spin and was in the form of his life and connections new this, thus supplementing him for the Gold Cup.
Report sixtwosix April 1, 2014 8:41 PM BST
Agree Marychain1 . It is the one worry I would have for Teaforthree (and any runner in the Gold Cup).  It was a very average renewal , but it looked to take a stack out of the combatants .

On His Own peaked at the right time ,just like Synchronised , in a poor renewal . The quality of the Gold Cup goes up and down ....we had a stellar period and now three pretty average races.
Report marychain1 April 1, 2014 8:45 PM BST
I don't have any issue with Giant Bolster, On His Own or Lord Windermere's run in the Gold Cup. If someone had said you could throw a blanket over them as they finished I wouldn't have been surprised. I don't think its unreasonable to look at that form for what it is.

I would have assumed we were talking about the 3rd-5th placed finishers though, 15+ lengths behind Bob's Worth.
Report shockster April 1, 2014 8:50 PM BST
Sounds about right Marychain although not many win more than 1 Gold cup.  Still the price differential on Buckers Bridge and T43, Triolo looks wrong on lines through OHO and to me that spells value.  Noy saying it's going to win but is value based on form and price of the favourite.
Report ReaseHeath April 1, 2014 9:14 PM BST
T43 surely too short though and priced up on basis that he was best finisher last year of those trying again.

Bit harsh begrudging Swing Bill a run given he was sixth last year and would have rewarded each way players with one or two firms at 80/1.

Just wonder if Monbeg Dude might start favourite - by Saturday morning the general public will be buying into the idea that Zara trains him for her hubbie who bought him when p1ssed after a dwarf throwing contest.

As for me, I'm increasingly keen on the chances of The Package.
Report tommy2 April 2, 2014 10:31 PM BST
Nick Henderson says 3 of his runners wont like the SOFT ground. So why on earth is he running them! Answer up maestro and give some respect to those who would appreciate the SOFT ground. Too many owners in this race for the craic.
Report differentdrum April 2, 2014 10:40 PM BST
You answered your own question. It is the same with Festival handicaps. Those framing the races like to see the 'deadwood' keeping out something that potentially might have a few pounds in hand. It's alright raving about a better class of runner but often these horses are a couple of years past their best.
Report tommy2 April 2, 2014 11:03 PM BST
The Ebor on the flat is a classic example. 3 year olds have no chance of getting a run
Report Sven Vath April 3, 2014 10:30 AM BST
Swing bill apparently last one in, so owners can withdraw Buckers Bridge if they prefer Goonyella.
Report tema April 3, 2014 11:12 AM BST
Is there any chance Katie walsh rides colbert station??
Report pedrobob April 3, 2014 11:25 AM BST
Just wonder if Monbeg Dude might start favourite - by Saturday morning the general public will be buying into the idea that Zara trains him for her hubbie who bought him when p1ssed after a dwarf throwing contest.

Laugh Laugh

yes, reese, the public fall for that type of horse every year....
Report pedrobob April 3, 2014 11:26 AM BST
The Ebor on the flat is a classic example. 3 year olds have no chance of getting a run

tommy, I think the order of ballot will be decided by official mark, not actual weight to be carried. 3yos would have as good a chance as any of getting in if they are good enough
Report sixtwosix April 3, 2014 11:38 AM BST
They must now decide which of Buckers Bridge & Goonyella they believe is the better option....I know which one I think it is.
They may decide to try again in the Irish version ,so long as the ground does not dry out.
But I think this ground and distance is spot on for Goonyella ....ffs Shakalakaboomboom runs and this fellow does not , has it jumped a fence in 2 years ?
Report differentdrum April 3, 2014 11:53 AM BST
ATR earlier showed Lynch on Buckers Bridge and Brennan on Goonyella. Would they have jocked them up if they were just going to pull Buckers Bridge? Don't associate Brennan with a decent Aintree record but perhaps the stats suggest otherwise? Clearly Goonyella has the better chance but I can see the owners leaving things as they are. Is there a chance of anything else pulling out?
Report forgotmyusername April 3, 2014 11:58 AM BST
Pedro, re the Ebor, it is actual weight carried that decides balloting. If a 3yo has an official rating of 100 and a weight of 8st 7lbs he is balloted instead of a 4yo with 8st 8lbs rated 90.
Report Just So April 3, 2014 12:04 PM BST
anyone know when the cut-off is for reserves getting in? something like 10am Friday rings a bell but any better info appreciated - cheers.
Report Fabulous April 3, 2014 12:11 PM BST
9am Friday Just So
Report Just So April 3, 2014 12:16 PM BST
thanks Fabulous
Report tommy2 April 3, 2014 8:18 PM BST
Macmanus or Gigginstown wouldn't hesitate to withdraw one to get a better fancied reserve in to a race
Report sixtwosix April 3, 2014 8:20 PM BST
Don't think he will get a run now unfortunately . It is the not knowing how he would have done that is irritating .
Report sixtwosix April 4, 2014 12:42 PM BST
Oh well , that's the end of this 'non story' . Sad
Can't for the life of me see why they can't have the deadline at 9 am on Saturday .....oh ffs I forgot about the newspaper sweeepstake kits. Cool Let's see if all 40 are still running this time tomorrow.
Report Zazu April 4, 2014 1:35 PM BST
^^ can you imagine the carnage if a horse won that wasn't on the bookies quickslips Shocked
Report sixtwosix April 5, 2014 5:53 PM BST
Too many 'dead wood' runners with marks reflecting ability they no longer haveabove him .

Shakalakaboomboom , Burton Port , Across The Bay , Lion Na Bearnai , Prince De Beauchene , Golan Way ......to name six who will not be troubling the judge even for a place.

I wouldn't bank on Burton Port being past it, still young & with lots of class form and came 2nd last time out.
Cool
Report sixtwosix November 16, 2014 6:06 PM GMT
Cracking first run of the season chasing home Plinth in a hurdle race....hopefully won't be number 41 this year.
Report Mully December 12, 2014 4:16 PM GMT
I'm going to put that first fence Becher fence fall down to the low sun.
Report Mully December 12, 2014 4:17 PM GMT
*extra fences Laugh
Report sixtwosix January 22, 2015 8:52 PM GMT
Grand staying on 3rd in the Thystes today , possibly being beaten by the Gold Cup Winner.
Report houseofpain February 17, 2015 1:35 PM GMT
78 this year ??
Report Mully February 17, 2015 2:05 PM GMT
I'm guessing 71. I take it 78 is your fancy? Cool
Report sixtwosix February 17, 2015 5:26 PM GMT
won't get in from 79 ......just like last year there will be a stack of higher rated ,on the downslide horses.

None of the 6 I highlighted last year came within a mile of the money.
Report sixtwosix March 14, 2015 5:18 PM GMT
Shame he will struggle to get in again .....no doubt because of high rated past it steeplechasers just like last year.
Jumped like a stag to won on soft ground today , would be a serious player on similar ground.
Report the bloob March 15, 2015 11:27 AM GMT
it would be favourite in my book if it got in, but it won't
Report Facts March 16, 2015 6:52 PM GMT
Trainers son has stated it won't run.
Report Rydal March 16, 2015 7:01 PM GMT
Trainer said it wouldn't get in. He's probably right but I would expect them to leave the horse in at the second forfeit stage just in case.
Report jasey March 16, 2015 7:02 PM GMT
No way would he be fav.Goon is only a bet if getting soft going.
Report sixtwosix March 24, 2015 6:29 PM GMT
Number 56 now ....with his new rating after Midlands Grand National romp he would be in the 40 no problem.......load of old has beens above him still on ludicrous ratings ,again.
Report houseofpain March 24, 2015 6:55 PM GMT
big fan of the horse, painful memories this fred from last year, but i couldn't back it unless soft in the going
Report houseofpain April 18, 2015 3:57 PM BST
great run today made nice few quid in running, big race will be his when he gets the mud flying.
Report sixtwosix April 18, 2015 6:39 PM BST
Awesome performance on that ground and a terrific ride by the jockey to keep him in contention .....that staying power at Aintree could see him home next year .....here's hoping.
Report sixtwosix October 31, 2015 8:46 PM GMT
First race of the season tomorrow at Cork.
He started in a similar hurdle race last year.
Report sixtwosix November 1, 2015 2:28 PM GMT
More than adequate first run of the season.
Report layingisthewayforward November 19, 2015 3:04 PM GMT
Entered in the bechers. Anyone know if thats a definate plan ?
Report The Dragon November 30, 2015 12:23 PM GMT
its 10/1 fav with WH and 14s in places
Report shockster December 8, 2015 9:41 AM GMT
Just taken a bit of 40/1 EW with Skybet.  Not too phased about the run in the Bechers as everything will be geared to the spring.  Will be 9 come the race and last years Midland Natioanal winner and Scottish National 2nd will be prepared for the day. 40/1 too big IMO.
Report sixtwosix December 8, 2015 9:06 PM GMT
Jumped ok ,but tailing off was a surprise ....clinging to the hope he will bebetter for the run .Grin
Report The Dragon December 13, 2015 9:24 AM GMT
going for the welsh grand national??
Report shockster December 14, 2015 10:42 AM GMT
Goonyella is not entered for the Welsh National.
Report shockster January 21, 2016 10:04 AM GMT
Just backed Goonyellas stablemate and also same owners (Potts) Buckers Bridge @ odds of 180 on here and 34 place.  Ran well for a long way in the National 2 years ago before making mistakes and seemingly being prepared for it again. Runs in Thyestes today so worth backing now as will be nowhere near these odds either on the day or after this if he runs well.

Also Backed Royale Knight 50/1, Double Seven 50/1 @ Goonyella 40/1.
Report shockster January 21, 2016 4:23 PM GMT
Buckers Bridge ran an OK race 6th of 18 on his 2nd race back in the Thyestes.  Still happy with the big odds. Will have a lightweight in the National if he squeezes in.
Report betilyerded January 24, 2016 8:36 PM GMT
Had a few quid on Ballycasey @ 66-1. Was enjoying the fences before being wiped out at the canal turn last year.

Slight doubt about the trip but liked his run in Thyestes and more to the point, the way he jumps.

No way was he going to be tuned up for that and as Aintree is his target dont expect fireworks until the weights are framed.

That said, Goonyella is definitely a player and similar comments apply to him. If he had won the Beecher then it was game over for the National. Entered in Thurles over hurdles on Thursday, start of the build up.
Report runandskip January 25, 2016 12:02 AM GMT
any news on Home Farms well being ?
Report Lion King February 7, 2016 3:59 PM GMT
He will run better once the weights come out. He is only being trained for one race and they water now so the ground will have some ease and if it rains, happy days.
Report jasey February 8, 2016 11:13 PM GMT
They should have been trying to get his mark down 10 spots to have any chance
Report Rydal February 9, 2016 9:03 AM GMT
IMO, he probably wouldn't get in off 10 spots less.
Report jasey February 9, 2016 12:02 PM GMT
139 last year was bottom weight but it highlights the point the lesser quality horses blow their mark to get in the race these days.
Report sixtwosix February 10, 2016 6:42 PM GMT
the lesser quality horses blow their mark to get in the race these days.

Rather the problem is horses way past their best on higher marks running in the race with no chance whatsoever , occurs every year.

Goonyella has no problem getting a run this year.
Report The Dragon February 18, 2016 10:37 PM GMT
25/1
Report Bindaree February 19, 2016 8:24 PM GMT
What is the fascination with this moderate horse. He has unseated and been last over the National fences !!
Report sixtwosix March 6, 2016 6:01 PM GMT
By my reckoning giving 25 pounds to winner ,  outpaced and staying on strongly over a sprint distance of 3 miles. Grin

Connections must be over the moon . A bit of rain near the day and he will be going off favourite and outstaying the field .
Report Rydal March 25, 2016 7:56 AM GMT
The 10 day weather forecast looks promising - 73 mm of rain forecast for Ormskirk over 10 days (historical average for the month of April for Liverpool is 48).
Report sixtwosix April 2, 2016 11:18 AM BST
A week to go until the Goonyella appreciation society day out at Aintree.....over 2 years since it was planned.
The weather forecast looks unsettled for the week.
Very few of the field will be getting home imo and I think Goonyella will go off favourite on the day.

Cool
Report jasey April 2, 2016 12:50 PM BST
"Goonyella will go off fav"
April fool was yesterday.
Report shockster April 4, 2016 11:15 AM BST
Going is now "SOFT" on the National course. In the words of John "Hannibal" Smith "I love it when a plan comes together".Excited
Report Zazu April 4, 2016 3:49 PM BST
Just backed it. Lots or rain today
Report sixtwosix April 9, 2016 3:38 PM BST
No excuses now , the ground is getting spot on for Goonyella ......here's hoping.
Report Eeternaloptimist April 9, 2016 5:38 PM BST
Needed to jump better and another mile. Laugh
Report sixtwosix April 9, 2016 5:41 PM BST
Grand effort, just not good enough .
Report Bindaree April 10, 2016 9:48 AM BST
Just not good enough to win a GN. Had everything in it's favour but never threatened to get involved !! Should have been 33-1.
Report sixtwosix April 10, 2016 11:38 AM BST
Clearly not good enough.
If before the race I would have known he was as close as he was going to Valentines second time on soft ground I would have put my life savings on him winning.
He stayed on past a few tired horses , but surprisingly didn't get close to the front four.

Mind,

Won Midlands National
2nd Scottish Grand National
5th Grand National

is not too shabby.
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